The game of predicting who is going to win the Oscars is a little maddening. On the one hand there never seem to be any surprises and the people who win all the other awards, win this one too. On the other hand, predictions are made (unless you got money on it) with a combination of wishful thinking, conventional wisdom, past awards and resignation.
Everybody seems to think that The King's Speech is a lock. It is deeply popular, it has won everything under the sun and it is a classy feel good movie, in a style that tends to be adored by the apparently overwhelmingly geriatric contingent that votes.
Having said this, I believe there is a strong possibility for an upset. And that would be The Social Network, a bona fide American movie about something that is not only happening in this day and age, but that is literally changing the world as we know it. Just like last year, improbably, but absolutely rightly, the Academy awarded The Hurt Locker because it was a statement about Iraq, even though nobody saw it and it didn't really make money (and it was competing against Avatar!), this year, they may decide to vote for a homegrown quality product that reflects the world we live in, not some Hallmark Card fantasy of the past.
At least that would make the proceedings more exciting.