In toto, they are quite expected. With the usual major snubs and undeserving celebration of overrated acting (Streep and Roberts, I'm looking at you).
Here's an alternative, in order of my preference.
Key: snubs / • expected wins /
Best Picture
Nebraska
Nebraska
American Hustle
The Wolf of Wall Street
• 12 Years a Slave
Gravity
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
All Is Lost
How do extremely conventional movies like Philomena and Dallas Buyers Club, which are decent, but no great shakes, get a nomination in lieu of original, ballsy, beautifullly crafted pieces like All Is Lost and Inside Llewyn Davis is anybody's sorry guess. 12 Years A Slave is a smart, important movie that deserves to be there, but it is not that great a movie. Gravity is a spectacular movie with a disappointing script, but it deserves to be there, and Captain Phillips is a well crafted spectacle with an interesting topic that deserves more balls than it got in the film (Americans are not the hot shit they used to be). The Wolf Of Wall Street is a big ass Scorsese movie, epic in its manic energy. American Hustle and Nebraska are the most realized and interesting ones, but I think the winner lies between 12 Years A Slave and Gravity, because of what they mean in the business. One for historic reasons, and the other one for pushing the envelope of cinematic possibilities, like Avatar, but much better.
Best Actor
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Christian Bale, American Hustle
• Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Forest Whitaker, The Butler
Forest Whitaker, The Butler
Christian Bale, Out Of The Furnace
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
I know it is controversial to deny Ejiofor his due. He does a very good job, but the Solomon Northup character has little dimension. It is a portrait of almost passive, unremitting suffering, and thus, not as interesting as some of the more volatile characters in the list. Meanwhile, Forest Whitaker does a spectacular turn as a man whose vocation is to serve, proudly and blindly, and no one notices because it is too subtle. And Oscar Isaac does a mean feat of singing and playing guitar and being ornery and somehow lovable, but also too subtle for the more histrionic tastes of Academy voters. I'm just grateful they recognized the enormity of Bruce Dern's turn in Nebraska, to me, the undisputed winner.
The winner is a toss up between Dern (old Hollywood), McConaughey (losing 50 pounds always helps, but he is truly excellent) and Leo, who at this point deserves the love that has been denied him for so long.
Best Actress
• Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
• Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Judi Dench, Philomena
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Best Supporting Actor
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
• Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Matthew McConaughey, The Wolf Of Wall Street
Paul Giamatti, 12 Years A Slave
Leto's is the showiest role and he was fantastic and will probably win, because actors with dramatic physical transformations always do, but Fassbender's character is a study in abject weakness. I found him to be psychologically credible, a messy horror of a human being; a drunk, a bully, a coward, a child, someone you could actually know. It is brave of an actor to inhabit such a character without fear and without redemption. Barkhad Abdi's nomination may seem like a gimmick, but he is so charismatic, self-assured and convincing that he steals the movie from under Tom Hanks' feet. Bradley Cooper is the best he's ever been and so is Jonah Hill. McConaughey steals the show in The Wolf of Wall Street, even if it's only for minutes, and I thought Paul Giamatti was the very soul of uncaring market forces in 12 Years A Slave. Not evil, just doing business. He rocked.
Paul Giamatti, 12 Years A Slave
Leto's is the showiest role and he was fantastic and will probably win, because actors with dramatic physical transformations always do, but Fassbender's character is a study in abject weakness. I found him to be psychologically credible, a messy horror of a human being; a drunk, a bully, a coward, a child, someone you could actually know. It is brave of an actor to inhabit such a character without fear and without redemption. Barkhad Abdi's nomination may seem like a gimmick, but he is so charismatic, self-assured and convincing that he steals the movie from under Tom Hanks' feet. Bradley Cooper is the best he's ever been and so is Jonah Hill. McConaughey steals the show in The Wolf of Wall Street, even if it's only for minutes, and I thought Paul Giamatti was the very soul of uncaring market forces in 12 Years A Slave. Not evil, just doing business. He rocked.
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
• Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
June Squibb, Nebraska
Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
Margot Robbie, The Wolf Of Wall Street
Scarlett Johansson, Her
Jennifer Lawrence is the best thing in a movie that has a lot of very good things. She is fierce, funny, lost, touching, out of her depth, and utterly fantastic in American Hustle. She somehow manages to rise above at least three other spectacular performances. It's not her fault that she won last year. She deserves to win again. Instead of Sally Hawkins, who is perfectly good, and Julia Roberts who has moments but wears one multipurpose scowl, I wish the Academy voters appreciated the truth in Margo Martindale's performance in August: Osage County, or the incredible big screen debut of Margot Robbie in WOWS, or even the excellent voice acting of ScarJo in Her. She's the best thing in the film.
Jennifer Lawrence is the best thing in a movie that has a lot of very good things. She is fierce, funny, lost, touching, out of her depth, and utterly fantastic in American Hustle. She somehow manages to rise above at least three other spectacular performances. It's not her fault that she won last year. She deserves to win again. Instead of Sally Hawkins, who is perfectly good, and Julia Roberts who has moments but wears one multipurpose scowl, I wish the Academy voters appreciated the truth in Margo Martindale's performance in August: Osage County, or the incredible big screen debut of Margot Robbie in WOWS, or even the excellent voice acting of ScarJo in Her. She's the best thing in the film.
Best Director
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
• Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
J.C Chandor, All Is Lost
Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
J.C Chandor, All Is Lost
Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
This is a tough one, and everyone here is very deserving. To me, the one to me that did a less coherent job is Steve McQueen. The masters of tone are Russell, Payne (in particular) and Scorsese, but I think it's going to be between Cuarón and McQueen.
I find the snubbing of All Is Lost particularly galling in all the major categories. As for the Coens, the movie is too gloomy a love poem to artistic failure to be appreciated.
Adapted screenplay
The Wolf of Wall Street, Terence Winter
Before Midnight, Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
• 12 Years a Slave, John Ridley
Captain Phillips, Billy Ray
Philomena, Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
The Great Gatsby, Baz Luhrmann and Craig Pierce
Say what you will about The Great Gatsby, despite Luhrmann's tackiness, the script is extremely faithful to the novel, and very well done. I fail to understand why the lovely Before Midnight is considered an adaptation. Anybody? Terence Winter's profane, vicious and funny script is probably far more interesting than the base material. I found Philomena oddly maladroit in tone, like it wants to be all things to all people.
I bet it's gonna be 12 Years A Slave, a solid adaptation of a challenging book.
Original screenplay
• American Hustle, Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Nebraska, Bob Nelson
Blue Jasmine, Woody Allen
Her, Spike Jonze
Dallas Buyers Club, Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack
Inside Llewyn Davis, Joel and Ethan Coen
All Is Lost, J.C. Chandor
The script for American Hustle is extremely ambitious and complex and it is a testament to David O. Russell that he delivered it with flair and clarity. It is a spectacular piece of writing, and so is the more subtle and understated Nebraska, my two favorites in this category. The rest of the nominees flummox me. Blue Jasmine is the best thing Woody Allen has done in years, but it is not as polished as some of its competitors. I have a real aversion to Her. I find the script lazy and the conceptual and dramatic possibilities unexplored. And Dallas Buyers Club is like a perfectly decent Movie of The Week. Then more original, evocative, imaginative work like Inside Lllewyn Davis and All Is Lost was excluded.
Cinematography
• Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki
Inside Llewyn Davis, Bruno Delbonnel
Nebraska, Phedon Papamichael
Prisoners, Roger A. Deakins
The Grandmaster, Philippe Le Sourd
The Secret Life Of Walter Mitty, Stuart Dryburgh
American Hustle, Linus Sandgren
All Is Lost, Frank G. DeMarco, Peter Zuccarini
Now is the time for Lubezki to win, but incredibly, he may not if people consider that most of the movie was done in CGI. Still, he designed the lighting and you can see his sensitive touch on the breathtaking gorgeousness that is Gravity. If he doesn't win this time, all I can say is yikes. I was happy to see Roger Deakins' work on Prisoners, a movie that without his moody lighting would not be as good. I found the work in The Grandmaster uneven, the CGI sloppy and I pined for the arresting beauty of Christopher Doyle's work.
The Wolf of Wall Street, Terence Winter
Before Midnight, Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
• 12 Years a Slave, John Ridley
Captain Phillips, Billy Ray
The Great Gatsby, Baz Luhrmann and Craig Pierce
Say what you will about The Great Gatsby, despite Luhrmann's tackiness, the script is extremely faithful to the novel, and very well done. I fail to understand why the lovely Before Midnight is considered an adaptation. Anybody? Terence Winter's profane, vicious and funny script is probably far more interesting than the base material. I found Philomena oddly maladroit in tone, like it wants to be all things to all people.
I bet it's gonna be 12 Years A Slave, a solid adaptation of a challenging book.
Original screenplay
• American Hustle, Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Nebraska, Bob Nelson
Her, Spike Jonze
Inside Llewyn Davis, Joel and Ethan Coen
All Is Lost, J.C. Chandor
The script for American Hustle is extremely ambitious and complex and it is a testament to David O. Russell that he delivered it with flair and clarity. It is a spectacular piece of writing, and so is the more subtle and understated Nebraska, my two favorites in this category. The rest of the nominees flummox me. Blue Jasmine is the best thing Woody Allen has done in years, but it is not as polished as some of its competitors. I have a real aversion to Her. I find the script lazy and the conceptual and dramatic possibilities unexplored. And Dallas Buyers Club is like a perfectly decent Movie of The Week. Then more original, evocative, imaginative work like Inside Lllewyn Davis and All Is Lost was excluded.
Cinematography
• Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki
Inside Llewyn Davis, Bruno Delbonnel
Nebraska, Phedon Papamichael
Prisoners, Roger A. Deakins
The Secret Life Of Walter Mitty, Stuart Dryburgh
American Hustle, Linus Sandgren
All Is Lost, Frank G. DeMarco, Peter Zuccarini
Now is the time for Lubezki to win, but incredibly, he may not if people consider that most of the movie was done in CGI. Still, he designed the lighting and you can see his sensitive touch on the breathtaking gorgeousness that is Gravity. If he doesn't win this time, all I can say is yikes. I was happy to see Roger Deakins' work on Prisoners, a movie that without his moody lighting would not be as good. I found the work in The Grandmaster uneven, the CGI sloppy and I pined for the arresting beauty of Christopher Doyle's work.
Foreign language film
The Hunt, Denmark
• The Great Beauty, Italy
The Hunt, Denmark
• The Great Beauty, Italy
The Broken Circle Breakdown, Belgium
The Missing Picture, Cambodia
Omar, Palestine
The Missing Picture, Cambodia
The Past, France/Iran
The Hunt is one of the best movies of the year in any language. The Great Beauty is a great treat. I haven't seen the Belgian nor the Cambodian films. Omar is a perfectly good movie, and its nomination is a welcome political statement, but it is not among the greatest foreign films of the year. A much better movie is Ashgar Farhadi's The Past.
Makeup and Hairstyling
American Hustle: biggest snub of all time
The Hunt is one of the best movies of the year in any language. The Great Beauty is a great treat. I haven't seen the Belgian nor the Cambodian films. Omar is a perfectly good movie, and its nomination is a welcome political statement, but it is not among the greatest foreign films of the year. A much better movie is Ashgar Farhadi's The Past.
Makeup and Hairstyling
American Hustle: biggest snub of all time
Actors who were not snubbed, despite protestations to the contrary:
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler. She was all over the place.
Robert Redford, All Is Lost. Best thing he's ever done, but that's not saying much.
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips. Best 3 minutes of his career at the end of the film, but only 3 minutes, if not less.
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