Having said this, here are the people I'm rooting for.
Some categories this year, like Best Picture, are pretty formidable. To me, it comes down to There Will Be Blood, which should unequivocally win, vs. No Country for Old Men, which is overrated but will probably win. I hope Michael Clayton makes it to the nominations for Best Picture. I really liked that film. I loved Rescue Dawn, by Werner Herzog, but I think I'm in a rather lonely place.
Atonement won the Globes because it is romantic and European and grand. Academy members better vote for something proudly made in the USA.
Cate Blanchett is a marvel as Bob Dylan in I'm Not There, but I am rooting, hoping and praying for Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton for best supporting actress. A very close second is Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone. In fact, if it was up to me I would give Ryan and Swinton a tie. It has happened before. Blanchett has won too many times, give it up!
Best supporting guy is going to be Bardem, and why not, we adore him and he deserves it, but my fave is Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton. Steve Zahn in Rescue Dawn deserves a nod.
Best actor will go to Daniel Day-Lewis, even though this may be the hammiest piece of acting that actually worked ever. Clooney was great in Michael Clayton. However, as I have said before, if Christian Bale is not nominated for Rescue Dawn I will be very upset and will storm the barricades. If it was up to me, he'd get the bald man.
Best Actress, go Julie Christie! Angelina Jolie deserves a nod for A Mighty Heart. It is interesting that supporting women is a crowded field of great contenders but main banana, not so easy. There are not enough good roles for women, you know the kvetch. Ellen Page, of Juno, should be nominated but not win. Maybe when she's Julie Christie's age.
Best Director, my choice is PT Anderson, and also for adapted screenplay. He's a long shot, alas.
It's between Les Coens and Schnabel, who was great, until I saw There Will Be Blood. Tony Gilroy, who wrote and directed Michael Clayton deserves a nomination both for directing and screenplay. Great, classy job.
So does Tamra Jenkins for The Savages, on both counts, though I didn't like the movie. Let's be patriotic and have an all-American category for directing.
When Oscar time comes we will continue blathering about these and other categories as if it indeed mattered.